Being right is one thing, being right to the decimal is awesomeness. Nifty somehow traded exactly between the black lines which I drew for last week, though I would have preferred it to break 15650 and fall to 15450. But it does give me confidence in my technical analysis skills. The unanticipated surprise though was Monday with Adani news breaking the internet and charts.
Now, here’s what I am looking at:
Nifty 50 index looks sandwiched and most likely it is going to stay that way at least till first half of the week. If the green support line is broken, we can see it slip to or below 15450. I continue to hold downward bias since I believe RSI needs to cool down and touch the support trendline.
Thus, scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with black lines dissecting scenarios)…
|Scenario||Probability||Anticipated Price Action|
|Consolidation||High||Between 15925 and 15450|
|Downtrend||Low||If breach below 15450; to drop somewhere till 15250|
|Uptrend||Low||If breach above 15925; to rise somewhere till 16100|
There continues to be a lot of skepticism around Adani group shares and if they are being manipulated via fund houses. Hopefully, the news has been accommodated and there should not be any surprises. The bigger news is Fed increasing rates which means flight of capital from emerging markets is on the cards.
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