Jun21-W4: Nifty Index 50 to decide direction this week (Jul19 to Jul23)?

Nifty Index 50 has consolidated for far too long and now seems to be itching to create all time high. The lack of momentum though is a dampener and 15900 – 16000 range has acted has strong resistance

Now, here’s what I am looking at:

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RSI is good representation of what has been happening. The sandwich between trendlines is simply not getting digested. Like I said earlier, it is clear that if Nifty reclaims parallel channel, buyers will win but drop below green trendline will give opportunity to sellers. As of now, I do not have any bias.

Thus, scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with black lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Probability	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	High	Between 16000 and 15775
Downtrend	Low	If breach below 15775; to drop somewhere till 15600
Uptrend	Low	If breach above 16000; to rise somewhere till 16150

At a global level, there seems to be quiet and peace everywhere. At a local level though, the impact of earnings can influence the swing either way. So, let’s see

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