I was anticipating that Nifty would go above the red trendline only to revert back. It did happen but everything was super slow. Lack of momentum did not let Nifty break 15600 and so the week simply died in a bullish consolidation.
Now, here’s what I am looking at (I have changed EMA & RSI settings as compared to last charts):
Timing of future price action is not something I am good at. My theory of failed breakout did not quite materialize last week but I still have the same bias. Therefore, my target for now continues to be the green rectangle around 15450. For that to happen, 3 trendlines would need to be broken but RSI divergence should take care of it.
Thus, scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with black lines dissecting scenarios)…
|Scenario||Probability||Anticipated Price Action|
|Consolidation||Med||Between 15900 and 15650|
|Downtrend||Med||If breach below 15650; to drop somewhere till 15450|
|Uptrend||Med||If breach above 15900; to rise somewhere till 16050|
There was just 1 high range candle last week. Let’s see if the fall happens this week. Option buyers would still need to time it properly. And since I lack that skill, I would prefer to sell call options if I can squeeze some free time from office.
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