Trades Archives - Page 4 of 4

Jul21-W4: Nifty Index 50 Option Trades Beat Target CAGR

Nifty index 50 could not keep calm last week as it dropped all the way till 15600. Even though I was expecting this to happen, my strike selection was not good. I should not take unexpected July 19 gap-down as an excuse especially when I had been anticipating such drama in my blog posts earlier. I should have adjusted strikes on Monday.

The P&L screenshot below does not tell the story. I was witnessing an unrealized loss of more than Rs. 4000 or about 0.65% of deployed capital. I have made a note of it. When I reach week 13, I shall be updating P&L numbers on homepage and this drawdown will also be posted there. Hopefully, this shall be the max drawdown.

So I sold OTM strangles from Jul 16 to Jul 22 whose daily candles were like this:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI for this week	Total no. of weeks traded till today	Average CAGR till today
Rs. 4,048.75	Rs. 6,47,150	0.549%	32.98%	6	43.63%

Where annualized ROI for week = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52)-1)*100

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

Jul21-W3: Nifty Index 50 Option Trades Beat Target CAGR

Based on my previous analysis, I was expecting a drop till green trendline but had no clue what would happen afterward. Though I expected Nifty Index 50 to break green trendline and move to green rectangle, it kept moving up silently. I traded strangles conservatively but maybe I could have been a bit more aggressive. I also traded an intraday sell put opportunity on July 10 but again, my strike selection could have been nearer to money.

So I sold OTM strangles from Jul 9 to Jul 15 whose daily candles were like this:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI for this week	Total no. of weeks traded till today	Average CAGR till today
Rs. 3,953.65	Rs. 6,43,197	0.615%	37.53%	5	45.76%

Where annualized ROI for week = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52)-1)*100

The following is breakdown of week’s positions:

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Jul21-W2: Nifty Index 50 Option Trades beat target CAGR

On Jul 1^st, I had sold nifty index 50 strikes which were so out of the money that they became indifferent to anything happening to Nifty. I was not able to book any profit before Monday. Even on Monday, I was scared due to low VIX and again ended up taking very far OTM positions. When I checked P&L on Wednesday, it was showing a profit of only Rs. 1100 or something. Thinking that no-risk-no-gain is the name of the game, I took really really stupid positions, especially 15650 PE. Though I ended in green, this is definitely not how I should trade.

So I sold OTM strangles from Jul 2 to Jul 8 whose daily candles were like this:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI for this week	Total no. of weeks traded till today	Average CAGR till today
Rs. 3,830.73	Rs. 6,39,366	0.599%	36.43%	4	47.82%

Where annualized ROI for week = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52)-1)*100

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

Jul21-W1: Nifty index 50 trades beat target CAGR

On Jun 23^rd, I sold nifty index 50 strikes expiring on July 1^st which meant that time to expiry was more than a week. Higher the time to expiry, higher the premium. But it was not the time that made me take positions in advance. The reason was volatility. If you will see intra-day Bollinger bands on Jun 23^rd, they were quite stretched out.

So I sold OTM strangle from Jun 23 to Jul 1 whose daily candles were like this:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI for this week	Total no. of weeks traded till today	Average CAGR till today
Rs. 7,232.3	Rs. 6,32,134	1.144%	80.68%	3	51.61%

Where annualized ROI for week = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52)-1)*100

The following is breakdown of week’s positions:

nifty index 50 positions for Jul 1st expiry

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Jun21-W4: Beats target CAGR

The last and only time I sold OTM strangle positions on Nifty was in 2^nd week of April. I then found myself caught in Covid assistance to family and then household and then office chores. It is not that I did not take any trades during that time. I took really stupid trades and lost a lot of money. Trading must be done with a free mind.

Anyways, based on my view for Jun21-W4, I sold OTM strangle from Jun 18 to Jun 24 whose daily candles were like this:

Time period during which trades were taken

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI
Rs. 3,437	Rs. 5,81,000	0.591%	35.9%

where annual return = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52-1)*100

The following is breakdown of trades:

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Apr21-W2: Beats estimates

As I review, I am now realizing that the market made a doji candle on the weekly timeframe. And all these days, I was wondering why there is so much volatility in the market. As the saying goes, don’t miss forest for the trees.

So the below are the 4 candles during which I took trades, with each day being completely contrary to what I was anticipating (more details here)

Anyhow, here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI
Rs. 4,000	Rs. 6,40,000	0.625%	38.26%

Where annualized return = ((1+week’s return in decimal)^52)-1)*100

In honesty, the key reason for achieving higher return was sheer luck. Though I was expecting consolidation during the week, but the way it happened was baffling to me. My daily basis analysis backfired (more details here) and I had no choice but to sell options on both sides. Basically, theta decay saved the week. But then, that’s what the strategy is all about, isn’t it?

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice