Plan

How I see the week ahead…

Nifty_DecW2

Dec21-W2: Nifty to play see-saw this week? (Dec6 to Dec10)

What I said last week was ‘The momentum is so strong that I anticipate Nifty to drop somewhere till mid line of purple or halt somewhere in between. Subsequently, the market should reverse and fly till somewhere between 5 EMA and 21 EMA.’ I couldn’t be more right, can I?

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Nifty as of now is playing with every trader’s mind. It is in a difficult spot where making predictions is very tough. There needs to be some more price action for making more concrete recommendations. The downtrend should continue as long as price is below the green support line (the line’s previous touch-points were 28Jul21 and 22Apr21). Knowing the target is anyone’ guess for the time being, since Nifty may make a double bottom near 16800ish and strive for a reversal.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17550 and 16850
DowntrendIf breach below 16850; to drop somewhere till 16150
UptrendIf breach above 17550; to rise somewhere till 18200

RBI is expected to announce rates, guidance and all on Wednesday. The fall of interest rates may end now. I guess I should take some loan before the party ends.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for

Dec21-W1: Nifty to fall like knife this week before reversing? (Nov29 to Dec3)

Breach of 17,600 would be an official signal of continued downtrend. Nifty may go down by another 1000 points in the long run. This is what I said last week. But my guess was ‘long run’ and not right-here-right-now like a falling knife. I really need to figure out how to take time into consideration. Maybe, Astro-finance can help. Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

We have a red channel and an extended purple channel. The momentum is so strong that I anticipate Nifty to drop somewhere till mid line of purple or halt somewhere in between. Subsequently, the market should reverse and fly till somewhere between 5 EMA and 21 EMA.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17400 and 16675
DowntrendIf breach below 16675; to drop somewhere till 16050
UptrendIf breach above 17400; to rise somewhere till 17950

The variants of SARS-CoV-2 are named after Greek alphabets, but for naming omicron, the experts skipped two letters Nu and Xi and chose omicron instead. I believe it is unfair. One variant definitely deserved the letter Xi. I wonder if Nifty will skip levels and create a lot of gaps this week.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

downtrend

Nov21-W4: Nifty to continue downtrend this week? (Nov22 to Nov26)

In my analysis of last week, I left out an important aspect which was cross-under of 5 EMA over 21 EMA. This meant that Nifty is officially in downtrend. Though there was a visible support channel, its significance gets diminished and chances of lack of upward movement get higher. I missed all this in my analysis and well, Nifty showed 4 red candled in the week.    

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

It is the red channel which matters now. More importantly, it is the level of 17,600 which will govern everything in future. Breach of 17,600 would be an official signal of continued downtrend. Nifty may go down by another 1000 points in the long run. Even though Nifty is falling, the weird thing is that volatility has been cooling. I wonder if there would be an upward movement even in short-term

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18050 and 17450
DowntrendIf breach below 17450; to drop somewhere till 17075
UptrendIf breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18350

Black Friday sales are around the corner. I wonder if US citizens will loosen their purse strings given the uncertain times.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21 W3 Nifty Chart

Nov21-W3: Nifty to rise till 18300ish this week? (Nov15 to Nov19)

As described last week, level of 18,000 was did play a critical role as Nifty played see saw with that level throughout the week. The end of week saw a good green candle taking Nifty decisively above 18,000 level

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

It is the green channel which matters now. Given the previous swing highs, I of course anticipate Nifty to breach the upper channel. The question will then become if Nifty can maintain its momentum and touch mid / top lines of purple channel. It may just happen. In that case, Nifty can go till 18300 or even 18400. On the other hand, a breach below the green channel can take Nifty back to 17600ish levels

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18300 and 17875
DowntrendIf breach below 17875; to drop somewhere till 17600
UptrendIf breach above 18300; to rise somewhere till 18600

Stubble burning is causing a lot of pollution. Nifty’s charts too appear polluted with all these red candles. Or maybe I should just wash my eyes.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nifty Nov21 W2

Nov21-W2: Level of 18000 to influence psychology for Nifty? (Nov8 to Nov12)

Based on volatility behavior, I was thinking last week that market will swing a lot. But it may not be wrong to say that it remained mostly upward. Being a 3 day week, it is difficult to conclude anything anyway

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

The red channel is all that matters as of now. Since the larger timeframe (weekly) is still massively bullish, I would not be surprised if Nifty breaches the top of this channel and takes out 18,000 also. This can then potentially snowball in a large bull move which can bring a new ATH. However, all this requires a good momentum. All that will take some time. As of this week, it is a very stalemate of a situation and the level of 18,000 will define everything.  

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18075 and 17750
DowntrendIf breach below 17750; to drop somewhere till 17450
UptrendIf breach above 18075; to rise somewhere till 18300

I hope it has been a happy Diwali for all. However, the auto sector has declared Diwali 2021 as one of the most dismal times due to high costs. Auto sector is usually a leading indicator. Let’s see what happens by Diwali 2022.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

nifty novw1

Nov21-W1: Nifty to continue to swing wildly? (Nov1 to Nov3)

The following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

I am no expert at wave theory but if this is onset of downtrend, then one more wave of reds is yet to come. Before that happens, Nifty may inch up a bit. On the other hand, if this is A-B-C type of correction, then this is mostly over? Anyways, this is a very short week and I wonder how much can Nifty swing in 3 days especially when we have 3 big fat red candles in the backdrop.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18050 and 17400
DowntrendIf breach below 17400; to drop somewhere till 17100
UptrendIf breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18600

Diwali muhurat trading has a history of taking the market up. Let’s see

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

nifty oct21w3

Oct21-W3: Nifty to respect the constraints? (Oct 18 to 22)

Last week’s prediction was a politically predict statement. It would not be fair to call it a prediction anyway. I said that Nifty could go either way after 2 days. I have been proven wrong as market chose the upside instead of downside.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Someone has to name this trend which has existed post-pandemic. Should I name it the pandemic trend? I mean, even hurricanes are named alpha, beta, gamma etc. The trend has behaved itself whenever it goes to high. It follows law of moving averages, somewhat.

The time has now come for it to behave again as it finds itself to respect the red parallel channel and an overstretched Bollinger band. This can happen over the course of next couple of days but unsure what would happen subsequently. Maybe, Nifty will make another top.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and greeen lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18600 and 17950
DowntrendIf breach below 17950; to drop somewhere till 17575
UptrendIf breach above 18600; to rise somewhere till 18975

Other than Nifty, Bitcoin too has gone crazy. If one looks at global equity indices and crypto indices, it would give an impression that everyone in the world is rich…but are we?

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Oct21-W2: Nifty to do something in this channel but what? (oct 11 to 15)

Last week’s prediction didn’t exactly go my way and Nifty went into a mild bullish mode. It was not exactly a surprise since Nifty continues to be above my green rectangle around 17400 level. Until that rectangle is cleanly broken, the bias is always going to be up

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Nifty is sitting nice and tight exactly around the mid line of the black parallel channel. I have no clue what it would want to do now but if I have to make a guess, I would be bearish. The reason is that Nifty is at a double top with stochastic making a divergence type formation. A break below mid-line will take Nifty straight to the lower end of parallel channel.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and greeen lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18075 and 17625
DowntrendIf breach below 17625; to drop somewhere till 17400
UptrendIf breach above 18100; to rise somewhere till 18300

India is running out of coal. Meanwhile, oil has breached the $80 mark and even $itself is nearing the 80 mark. WINTER IS COMING!!

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Oct21W1 Nifty

Oct21-W1: Nifty to do a boring consolidation (Oct4 to Oct8)?

Exactly as written last week, Nifty cracked and kept cracking. The law of moving averages spares none and momentum indicators were really exhausted. The writing was actually very clear on the charts.  

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

One might get tempted to say that the top is done. At least, I would love to say that since I have missed so much of the upside. However, the green rectangle of 17400 is an important horizontal support zone whose breach is essential before shouting out loud that Nifty would not be making any more highs soon. However, the past momentum will not let this happen so easily and recent downtrend will not let Nifty rise so easily. Therefore, it is a boring stalemate and we are now in a triangle.  

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and greeen lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17825 and 17300
DowntrendIf breach below 17300; to drop somewhere till 16750
UptrendIf breach above 17825; to rise somewhere till 18200

Dow Jones has been really struggling since a month now. If it does not deliver some good up-move soon, a lot of hell may break loose and the fire may spread till Nifty too.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

sep21w5

Sep21-W5: Nifty momentum forewarns of a correction (Sep27 to Oct1)?

Exactly as written last week, Nifty did remain below 5 EMA for initial couple of days but resumed its uptrend subsequently. The reversal till 15 EMA did not happen.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Even though Nifty is galloping ahead, the momentum indicators are exhausted now. There remain 3 parallel channels on my chart. The blue and green channels may only act as resistance from here on. Eventually, Nifty should settle after correction somewhere near the middle of black channel. This can happen either during coming week or next week.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and greeen lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18150 and 17700
DowntrendIf breach below 17700; to drop somewhere till 17250
UptrendIf breach above 18150; to rise somewhere till 18450

Metals, steel and realty have been booming these days. I wonder if this is a good time to exit equity and invest in real estate?

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.