Plan

What I said last week was that the trend remains bearish. I had been anticipating a good move on the downside since past 3 weeks. The last week finally gave that move.Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at 

I only know the very basics of wave theory but I believe I can see the 3 waves from 18100 level to 16375 level. This means that the market should ideally go for retracement. Since Friday has created a big gap between 16650 and 16484, I expect that the market will fill that gap this week. The market may continue to go up but I doubt it can go above the psychological level of 17,000

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 16800 and 16125
Downtrend	If breach below 16125; to drop somewhere till 15650
Uptrend	If breach above 16800; to rise somewhere till 17100

All these red candles are making Nifty too hot to handle. Coincidentally, heat wave is going on in northern India

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was that the setup was ready for a good move on the downside. I was expecting support around 17200 level. The market though opened far lower and the anticipated down move was already done on Monday itself.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at 

Since the first week of April, this has been a sell-on-rise market. There has not been any structure change at higher timeframes. The trend therefore remains bearish. However, the market is taking its own sweet time in this bearish phase. There have been a lot of consolidation phases also. I am clueless whether the market will rush this week to meet its target of 16200 (definitely unlikely this week, this may happen next week) or go slowly. Nonetheless, I remain bearish

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17300 and 16700
Downtrend	If breach below 16700; to drop somewhere till 16200
Uptrend	If breach above 17300; to rise somewhere till 17700

I wonder if Musk will buy TradingView also so that he can influence stock price of Twitter.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was that the setup was good for a significant downside. I was anticipating that Nifty will breach 17000 and coincidentally, this is what happened. There are times when Goddess Saraswati blesses my keyboard. Hope the blessings continue.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

I continue to see 2 downward sloping parallel channels. I will continue to remain bearish until Nifty is able to break out from both of them. Support lines for both channels can be seen interjecting around 16525 level. Ideally, Nifty should not go below this week but at the worst, Nifty may go till 16200 also.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17425 and 16800
Downtrend	If breach below 16800; to drop somewhere till 16200
Uptrend	If breach above 17425; to rise somewhere till 17950

Nobody is able to tame inflation. Let’s eat wheat before we have to switch to corn.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

The week started with a very big gap down. It in fact opened at the level at which I was expecting it to find support. This obviously caused my put options to go in deep red. I had a bad feeling about market on Monday. I believed that the market could go down all the way to 16800 if 17000 was breached.

Therefore, while I did take mean reversion trades, I did not carry them for Tuesday. Luckily, the market opened a bit higher on Tuesday and I was able to exit my put positions. But then, I took new put positions thinking that the worst was over. But ignoring my own analysis is often a bad idea.

The market went down a lot on Tuesday. It crashed an approx. 2.5% within 1.5 hours. I don’t remember this type of momentum over the past year or so. I was not prepared. I simply averaged by put positions and hoped that theta decay will help.

But then there was a gap up on Wednesday, allowing me to exit all. The past week was as crazy as it gets. I could have made a lot of loss, but then I have recently learnt that I deserve to win. This feeling and a lot of luck helped me sail through this week.

I think gaps are going to be the new normal. I hope the intensity gets normal though.

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)	Capital deployed (approx)	Week’s ROI	Annualized ROI for this week	Total no. of weeks traded till today	Annualized  return till today
Rs. 14,465.91	Rs. 13,50,000	1.07%	74.06%	2	96.34%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was that there was no clear sense of direction which market may take. Well, Nifty only had 3 days to trade anyway. Even though 17550 was broken, there was not enough time to build momentum last week

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

The setup is ready for a good move on the downside. There are 2 parallel channels that I can see. Support lines for both channels can be seen interjecting around 17200 level. This may give some support but I would not be surprised if 17000 is also breached this week.    

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17675 and 17200
Downtrend	If breach below 17200; to drop somewhere till 16850
Uptrend	If breach above 17675; to rise somewhere till 17900

The war between Ukraine and Russia is escalating. I wonder when the downfall of Nifty will escalate. I am eagerly awaiting the level of 14000.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

The last week would have had Nifty short position takers gasping for breath on Monday. If those traders were looking at sgxnifty.org on Tuesday, they would have lost all hope. However, things got normal as market opened on Tuesday and then there was trouble for long position takers.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

This week is quite tight. There is no clear sense of direction which market may take. I think Nifty may consolidate between the red and green lines. If it breaks above or below these lines, it may provide significant upside / downside either this week or the next week.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 18050 and 17550
Downtrend	If breach below 17550; to drop somewhere till 17100
Uptrend	If breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18550

Covid XE almost sounds like a new model for iPhone. I wonder how is Nifty going to react if the 4^th wave rises

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was ‘Even if Nifty manages to break above red line, it may not be possible to maintain uptrend.’ I couldn’t be more wrong as Nifty went all greens blazing in a solid breakout above 17650.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

This week is expected to swing both ways. I see Nifty as trapped between my red and green rectangles. It may not be possible to maintain uptrend. There is high probability that Nifty may break its recent high above 17945 but only to create a double top and correct subsequently.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 18100 and 17525
Downtrend	If breach below 17525; to drop somewhere till 17050
Uptrend	If breach above 18100; to rise somewhere till 18500

I am really scared this time from Covid as I am not taking enough precautions. Is Nifty too behaving in same way?

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was ‘As the market is rising back with a vengeance after the previous 2-3 weeks of downtrend, it will be difficult for bears to stop its momentum.’ I was right as most of the week was a minor bullish trend.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

This week is expected to swing both ways. I see Nifty as trapped between my red and green lines. Even if Nifty manages to break above red line, it may not be possible to maintain uptrend. At the same time, there is too much price action around 17100 levels for Nifty to fall like a knife. Thus, I expect a boring consolidation during this first week of new year.  

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17650 and 17050
Downtrend	If breach below 17050; to drop somewhere till 16500
Uptrend	If breach above 17650; to rise somewhere till 18050

Hope year 2022 remains a boring one for all including Nifty. There has been too much volatility in previous 2 years and at least I can’t stand so many events in so little time. Let there be healing, for the world and for my P&L.  

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was ‘I usually use this combination to say that Nifty’s mean reversion is done and the previous trend shall resume now.’ I was right but I did not expect to be so right so fast. I was actually expecting Nifty to rise up a bit more before falling down.  

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Since Nifty did not waste much time in resuming its downtrend, I don’t see why the downtrend should even pause. The momentum should only increase and eventually we may see Nifty around 16000 level but perhaps not this week.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17300 and 16650
Downtrend	If breach below 16650; to drop somewhere till 16150
Uptrend	If breach above 17300; to rise somewhere till 17800

UK and US citizens are struggling with Omicron while their economies are struggling with inflation. What a struggle. No wonder, Nifty too is struggling.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

What I said last week was ‘Knowing the target is anyone’ guess for the time being, since Nifty may make a double bottom near 16800ish and strive for a reversal’. I was almost right as the reversal happened near 16900 level.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Let me write facts. Nifty is exactly at 21 EMA and 13-day stochastic is overbought. I usually use this combination to say that Nifty’s mean reversion is done and the previous trend shall resume now. In this case, the downtrend should continue. However, there is a probability for Nifty to create a fake uptrend before it does so. Therefore, it all depends on this triangle type pattern we are in currently. If we break and sustain above red line, we go up else go down. Let’s see   

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

Scenario	Anticipated Price Action
Consolidation	Between 17850 and 16950
Downtrend	If breach below 16950; to drop somewhere till 16650
Uptrend	If breach above 17850; to rise somewhere till 18225

Omnicron scare is also almost at the middle. Let’s hope the cases go down but that does not necessarily mean market will go up, though the vice versa is a different story.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.