As stated last week, the support trendline (highlighted as green in this chart) was important. All hell broke loose on July 28th when Nifty Index 50 broke that trendline. The market though was able to pull itself back above the trendline and basically consolidated for next 2 days.
Now, here’s what I am looking at:
I personally do not like the drawings. There is too much clutter but at the same time, it all seems important to me. Nifty index 50 is caught between a rock and hard place. The logjam may continue this week to create a tight squeeze before breaking out in either direction. Thus, I remain neutral on market.
Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with black lines dissecting scenarios)…
|Scenario||Probability||Anticipated Price Action|
|Consolidation||High||Between 15975 and 15575|
|Downtrend||Low||If breach below 15575; to drop somewhere till 15400|
|Uptrend||Med||If breach above 15975; to rise somewhere till 16150|
The fed rate even is behind us. Most of the Indian stock results are behind us as well. Absence of any important event strengthens the case of consolidation. However, one major event is RBI monetary policy meeting wherein governor’s commentary can influence market. I personally do not anticipate any major influence from it though.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.