Apr21-W4: Nifty trapped in triangle (Apr19 to 23)?

Last week was almost a replica of prior week, though the momentum was larger this time. Monday again was a red day but RSI signaled bullish divergence. This led to ascent during remaining days forming yet another doji on weekly timeframe. Thus, my hypothesis of weekly consolidation stands vindicated for 2 weeks in a row now (everybody writes such arrogant statements on twitter etc, why not me? 🙂 )

Now, here’s what I am looking at:

Nifty is now in a triangle and I expect further consolidation this week in the yellow highlighted box unless there is a breakout from triangle in either direction

Thus, scenarios for the week ahead…

ScenarioProbabilityAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationHighBetween 14250 and 14850
UptrendLowIf breach above 14850ish; to rise till 15000ish
DowntrendMediumIf breach below 14200ish; to drop till 14000ish

With last 2 Mondays being big reds, it would be interesting to see how this week begins. Such occurrences affect traders psychologically causing emotional biases. Furthermore, the continuous flow of negative news can also invoke bearish views. It becomes all the more important during times like these to focus on price action only.    

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

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