Apr21-W3: Nifty consolidation to continue?

Even though Nifty began last week with Covid fever, the recovery was equally brilliant and by Friday, we are back to where we started. At an overall level, I can safely claim that my prediction of consolidation with a mix of red-green candles was correct (more details here). However, the manner of consolidation took me by surprise. I am sure it would have caused a lot of trouble for traders as well.

Now, here’s what I am looking at:

Nifty is clearly consolidating in a range, highlighted as yellow box. But since price is above averages, the bias is on the upside.

Thus, the following are scenarios for the week ahead…

ScenarioProbabilityAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationHigh14550 to 15000
UptrendMediumIf breach above 15050ish; to rise till 15300ish
DowntrendMediumIf breach below 14500ish; to drop till 14200ish

I personally don’t think that the continual rise of covid cases over the weekend would cause a red opening since that factor was already accommodated last Monday. However, if states like Maharashtra impose lockdown, it can trigger selling. Let’s see 

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

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