Day: May 1, 2022

Apr22-W4-PL

Apr22-W4: Some confident and some lucky trades bring good profits

Apr22-W4: Some confident and some lucky mean reversions bring good profits


The week again started with a very big gap down. It opened way below 17200 level where I was expecting it to find support. I did not have much confidence to be very aggressive on mean reversion. Therefore, I sold only a couple of 17000 PE options. I should have sold more.  

The rest of the week was quite standard except Thursday. The market kept going up relentlessly. I gave in to the temptation of mean reversion. I sold 17300 CE strike even though the charts were not that solid. I had to average continuously for management. Overall, the quantity became 1250.

I was not able to time the exit. I got greedy and kept waiting. It got a bit nervous actually but I got a lucky red spike and exited. It is another story though that I could have tripled my profits had I kept those options till expiry. But you never know, do you

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROITotal no. of weeks traded till todayAverage weekly  return till today
Rs. 24,073.57Rs. 15,16,8541.58%31.41%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

May22 W1

May22-W1: Nifty to freefall? (Apr18 to Apr22)

What I said last week was that the setup was ready for a good move on the downside. I was expecting support around 17200 level. The market though opened far lower and the anticipated down move was already done on Monday itself.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at 

Since the first week of April, this has been a sell-on-rise market. There has not been any structure change at higher timeframes. The trend therefore remains bearish. However, the market is taking its own sweet time in this bearish phase. There have been a lot of consolidation phases also. I am clueless whether the market will rush this week to meet its target of 16200 (definitely unlikely this week, this may happen next week) or go slowly. Nonetheless, I remain bearish

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17300 and 16700
DowntrendIf breach below 16700; to drop somewhere till 16200
UptrendIf breach above 17300; to rise somewhere till 17700

I wonder if Musk will buy TradingView also so that he can influence stock price of Twitter.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.