Month: May 2022

May22 W1 P&L

May22-W1: One of the best weekly returns

Yes, I made it big this time. A weekly return of 4% is way above my expectations. The best part is that I did almost everything properly. I need such returns from time to time because no matter how good it gets, there will always be a few weeks who will take away a lot from me. Is 4% the best that this strategy can deliver? I don’t know. I have earlier seen weekly return above 6% also but unsure if I was doing it right back then.

More than 50% of the total return came from mean reversion trade which was deployed on Wednesday, and was held till Thursday. The surprise rate hike gave that wonderful opportunity. Luckily, my wife alerted me about it. I took the initial  trade but had to soon start averaging quickly. By the end of Wednesday, I was sitting on 22 lots. I was expecting to earn 50% of premium but Thursday open was a dream come true and I earned more than 90%.

The rest of the profits came through the standard strangle trading which I deploy. Most of them came on Wednesday via call options as the market was slipping in deep red. I did well to aggressively roll-in the strikes. I believed on my analysis. I now have started measuring price action which is helping in setting strategy on daily basis.

With such a return, I have reasons to believe that I am doing well. I must maintain the rhythm.

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROITotal no. of weeks traded till todayAverage weekly  return till today
Rs. 61,938.65Rs. 1540927.704.02%42.12%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

may22 w2

May22-W2: Nifty to breathe? (May9 to May14)

What I said last week was that the trend remains bearish. I had been anticipating a good move on the downside since past 3 weeks. The last week finally gave that move.Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at 

I only know the very basics of wave theory but I believe I can see the 3 waves from 18100 level to 16375 level. This means that the market should ideally go for retracement. Since Friday has created a big gap between 16650 and 16484, I expect that the market will fill that gap this week. The market may continue to go up but I doubt it can go above the psychological level of 17,000

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 16800 and 16125
DowntrendIf breach below 16125; to drop somewhere till 15650
UptrendIf breach above 16800; to rise somewhere till 17100

All these red candles are making Nifty too hot to handle. Coincidentally, heat wave is going on in northern India

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Apr22-W4-PL

Apr22-W4: Some confident and some lucky trades bring good profits

Apr22-W4: Some confident and some lucky mean reversions bring good profits


The week again started with a very big gap down. It opened way below 17200 level where I was expecting it to find support. I did not have much confidence to be very aggressive on mean reversion. Therefore, I sold only a couple of 17000 PE options. I should have sold more.  

The rest of the week was quite standard except Thursday. The market kept going up relentlessly. I gave in to the temptation of mean reversion. I sold 17300 CE strike even though the charts were not that solid. I had to average continuously for management. Overall, the quantity became 1250.

I was not able to time the exit. I got greedy and kept waiting. It got a bit nervous actually but I got a lucky red spike and exited. It is another story though that I could have tripled my profits had I kept those options till expiry. But you never know, do you

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROITotal no. of weeks traded till todayAverage weekly  return till today
Rs. 24,073.57Rs. 15,16,8541.58%31.41%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

May22 W1

May22-W1: Nifty to freefall? (Apr18 to Apr22)

What I said last week was that the setup was ready for a good move on the downside. I was expecting support around 17200 level. The market though opened far lower and the anticipated down move was already done on Monday itself.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at 

Since the first week of April, this has been a sell-on-rise market. There has not been any structure change at higher timeframes. The trend therefore remains bearish. However, the market is taking its own sweet time in this bearish phase. There have been a lot of consolidation phases also. I am clueless whether the market will rush this week to meet its target of 16200 (definitely unlikely this week, this may happen next week) or go slowly. Nonetheless, I remain bearish

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17300 and 16700
DowntrendIf breach below 16700; to drop somewhere till 16200
UptrendIf breach above 17300; to rise somewhere till 17700

I wonder if Musk will buy TradingView also so that he can influence stock price of Twitter.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.