Day: April 10, 2022

Nifty-Apr22W2 Chart

Apr22-W2: Nifty to consolidate? (Apr11 to Apr15)

The last week would have had Nifty short position takers gasping for breath on Monday. If those traders were looking at on Tuesday, they would have lost all hope. However, things got normal as market opened on Tuesday and then there was trouble for long position takers.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

This week is quite tight. There is no clear sense of direction which market may take. I think Nifty may consolidate between the red and green lines. If it breaks above or below these lines, it may provide significant upside / downside either this week or the next week.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18050 and 17550
DowntrendIf breach below 17550; to drop somewhere till 17100
UptrendIf breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18550

Covid XE almost sounds like a new model for iPhone. I wonder how is Nifty going to react if the 4th wave rises

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.


Losing it all and starting all over again

I lost all profits I had made from my trading strategy over a period of half year, in a couple of weeks. Can you believe that? The amount was almost Rs. 3,00,000. How can I lose Rs. 3,00,000 in 2 weeks? Other than overconfidence and stupidity, there are some good reasons.

It is a bit of a story actually. During later half of Jan22, I needed to withdraw almost 40% of my trading capital to meet some requirement in family. The corpus was to be regained in about 1.5 months. So, I had decided to take a break. The brokerage cost and lack of capital to perform mean reversion trades does not really suit wannabebull style.

But after a couple of weeks, it got difficult to stay away from trading. I took trades which had nothing to do with wannabebull & no basis actually. On Feb 24th, I was trying to manage nifty calls via mean reversion style. I was so impulsive that I took hedges at 09:15:01 at market order. The cost of hedges was Rs. 60,000 which turned out to be the loss of the day. Since I never had capital, I applied for loan at CRED to manage that trade.

I subsequently wanted to recover this money and started doing wannabebull style trading but without analyzing charts. I ended up with a massive loss of over Rs. 2,00,000 on March 10th as I again was doing mean reversion trading without a plan in hand. But more than anything, I lost that much money that day because I thought I deserved to lose as I was not doing trading diligently.

No earning means learning:

  • Always believe that I am here to win, whether doing diligently or not
  • Market order at 09:15:01 is a big no
  • Mean reversion trading is a handle with care mathematical strategy. Let math instead of gut feeling drive it

I am going to resume writing on this site for another year as it definitely helps with the rhythm but won’t be posting trades in that detail. Nobody reads this site anyway and I am not trying even a bit to market it either. The objective right now is to bounce back. Not everything is bleak; I have made almost Rs. 80,000 during the past month. Preserving the winnings take utmost priority. The rest is simple.