Month: April 2022

Apr22 W4

Apr22-W4: Nifty to continue its fall? (Apr25 to Apr29)

What I said last week was that the setup was good for a significant downside. I was anticipating that Nifty will breach 17000 and coincidentally, this is what happened. There are times when Goddess Saraswati blesses my keyboard. Hope the blessings continue.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

I continue to see 2 downward sloping parallel channels. I will continue to remain bearish until Nifty is able to break out from both of them. Support lines for both channels can be seen interjecting around 16525 level. Ideally, Nifty should not go below this week but at the worst, Nifty may go till 16200 also.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17425 and 16800
DowntrendIf breach below 16800; to drop somewhere till 16200
UptrendIf breach above 17425; to rise somewhere till 17950

Nobody is able to tame inflation. Let’s eat wheat before we have to switch to corn.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Ape22W3 P&L

Apr22-W3: Lucky results of a scary week

The week started with a very big gap down. It in fact opened at the level at which I was expecting it to find support. This obviously caused my put options to go in deep red. I had a bad feeling about market on Monday. I believed that the market could go down all the way to 16800 if 17000 was breached.

Therefore, while I did take mean reversion trades, I did not carry them for Tuesday. Luckily, the market opened a bit higher on Tuesday and I was able to exit my put positions. But then, I took new put positions thinking that the worst was over. But ignoring my own analysis is often a bad idea.

The market went down a lot on Tuesday. It crashed an approx. 2.5% within 1.5 hours. I don’t remember this type of momentum over the past year or so. I was not prepared. I simply averaged by put positions and hoped that theta decay will help.

But then there was a gap up on Wednesday, allowing me to exit all. The past week was as crazy as it gets. I could have made a lot of loss, but then I have recently learnt that I deserve to win. This feeling and a lot of luck helped me sail through this week.

I think gaps are going to be the new normal. I hope the intensity gets normal though.

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 14,465.91Rs. 13,50,0001.07%74.06%296.34%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Apr22-W2: Good restart to Wannabebull


So the 1st week of Wannabebull’s restart has been quite successful. The market did absolutely nothing during the 4 days of trading and yet, I made a lot of money. I am absolutely stunned by how that happened. I did make around couple of thousands by day trading mean reversals but even if I discount that, the return is higher than expected.

The key reason that I can think is the VIX crash on April 8th. This allowed me to book more than 3K of profit on day 1 itself, while taking new positions quickly. It would be interesting to see how I navigate the coming week as I have trapped myself by taking positions when VIX was at its lowest.  

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 18,623.74Rs. 11,83,8951.57%125.16%1125.16%

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Apr22 W3 Nifty

Apr22-W3: Nifty to fall? (Apr18 to Apr22)

What I said last week was that there was no clear sense of direction which market may take. Well, Nifty only had 3 days to trade anyway. Even though 17550 was broken, there was not enough time to build momentum last week

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

The setup is ready for a good move on the downside. There are 2 parallel channels that I can see. Support lines for both channels can be seen interjecting around 17200 level. This may give some support but I would not be surprised if 17000 is also breached this week.    

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17675 and 17200
DowntrendIf breach below 17200; to drop somewhere till 16850
UptrendIf breach above 17675; to rise somewhere till 17900

The war between Ukraine and Russia is escalating. I wonder when the downfall of Nifty will escalate. I am eagerly awaiting the level of 14000.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nifty-Apr22W2 Chart

Apr22-W2: Nifty to consolidate? (Apr11 to Apr15)

The last week would have had Nifty short position takers gasping for breath on Monday. If those traders were looking at sgxnifty.org on Tuesday, they would have lost all hope. However, things got normal as market opened on Tuesday and then there was trouble for long position takers.

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

This week is quite tight. There is no clear sense of direction which market may take. I think Nifty may consolidate between the red and green lines. If it breaks above or below these lines, it may provide significant upside / downside either this week or the next week.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18050 and 17550
DowntrendIf breach below 17550; to drop somewhere till 17100
UptrendIf breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18550

Covid XE almost sounds like a new model for iPhone. I wonder how is Nifty going to react if the 4th wave rises

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

phoenix

Losing it all and starting all over again

I lost all profits I had made from my trading strategy over a period of half year, in a couple of weeks. Can you believe that? The amount was almost Rs. 3,00,000. How can I lose Rs. 3,00,000 in 2 weeks? Other than overconfidence and stupidity, there are some good reasons.

It is a bit of a story actually. During later half of Jan22, I needed to withdraw almost 40% of my trading capital to meet some requirement in family. The corpus was to be regained in about 1.5 months. So, I had decided to take a break. The brokerage cost and lack of capital to perform mean reversion trades does not really suit wannabebull style.

But after a couple of weeks, it got difficult to stay away from trading. I took trades which had nothing to do with wannabebull & no basis actually. On Feb 24th, I was trying to manage nifty calls via mean reversion style. I was so impulsive that I took hedges at 09:15:01 at market order. The cost of hedges was Rs. 60,000 which turned out to be the loss of the day. Since I never had capital, I applied for loan at CRED to manage that trade.

I subsequently wanted to recover this money and started doing wannabebull style trading but without analyzing charts. I ended up with a massive loss of over Rs. 2,00,000 on March 10th as I again was doing mean reversion trading without a plan in hand. But more than anything, I lost that much money that day because I thought I deserved to lose as I was not doing trading diligently.

No earning means learning:

  • Always believe that I am here to win, whether doing diligently or not
  • Market order at 09:15:01 is a big no
  • Mean reversion trading is a handle with care mathematical strategy. Let math instead of gut feeling drive it

I am going to resume writing on this site for another year as it definitely helps with the rhythm but won’t be posting trades in that detail. Nobody reads this site anyway and I am not trying even a bit to market it either. The objective right now is to bounce back. Not everything is bleak; I have made almost Rs. 80,000 during the past month. Preserving the winnings take utmost priority. The rest is simple.