In my analysis of last week, I left out an important aspect which was cross-under of 5 EMA over 21 EMA. This meant that Nifty is officially in downtrend. Though there was a visible support channel, its significance gets diminished and chances of lack of upward movement get higher. I missed all this in my analysis and well, Nifty showed 4 red candled in the week.
Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)
It is the red channel which matters now. More importantly, it is the level of 17,600 which will govern everything in future. Breach of 17,600 would be an official signal of continued downtrend. Nifty may go down by another 1000 points in the long run. Even though Nifty is falling, the weird thing is that volatility has been cooling. I wonder if there would be an upward movement even in short-term
Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…
|Scenario||Anticipated Price Action|
|Consolidation||Between 18050 and 17450|
|Downtrend||If breach below 17450; to drop somewhere till 17075|
|Uptrend||If breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18350|
Black Friday sales are around the corner. I wonder if US citizens will loosen their purse strings given the uncertain times.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.