Day: November 14, 2021

Nov21 W3 Nifty Chart

Nov21-W3: Nifty to rise till 18300ish this week? (Nov15 to Nov19)

As described last week, level of 18,000 was did play a critical role as Nifty played see saw with that level throughout the week. The end of week saw a good green candle taking Nifty decisively above 18,000 level

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

It is the green channel which matters now. Given the previous swing highs, I of course anticipate Nifty to breach the upper channel. The question will then become if Nifty can maintain its momentum and touch mid / top lines of purple channel. It may just happen. In that case, Nifty can go till 18300 or even 18400. On the other hand, a breach below the green channel can take Nifty back to 17600ish levels

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18300 and 17875
DowntrendIf breach below 17875; to drop somewhere till 17600
UptrendIf breach above 18300; to rise somewhere till 18600

Stubble burning is causing a lot of pollution. Nifty’s charts too appear polluted with all these red candles. Or maybe I should just wash my eyes.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21 W1 Performance

Nov21-W1: Made good money by doing intra-day mean reversion trading

The week began with a bang. Nifty went low, really low. With the level hovering around 17,600, I shorted some 17500 PE options. I kept adding some more options as Nifty kept going lower. Eventually, Nifty started turning around and I exited 50% positions at a good profile. But even when Nifty continued to go up, I noticed that option LTP started rising instead of falling. I closed remaining positions after sometime.

That is the thing with options. Their pricing has a lot to do with volatility and market price. It is almost like they have their own world which does have good correlation with spot but spot cannot be referenced for quick trading decisions. The rest of the week was the usual, similar to last week, and overall profit was quite good this week.

So I was trading these candles:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 16730.78Rs. 916051.31.82%156.3%2144.34%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.