Month: November 2021

Dec21-W1: Nifty to fall like knife this week before reversing? (Nov29 to Dec3)

Breach of 17,600 would be an official signal of continued downtrend. Nifty may go down by another 1000 points in the long run. This is what I said last week. But my guess was ‘long run’ and not right-here-right-now like a falling knife. I really need to figure out how to take time into consideration. Maybe, Astro-finance can help. Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

We have a red channel and an extended purple channel. The momentum is so strong that I anticipate Nifty to drop somewhere till mid line of purple or halt somewhere in between. Subsequently, the market should reverse and fly till somewhere between 5 EMA and 21 EMA.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 17400 and 16675
DowntrendIf breach below 16675; to drop somewhere till 16050
UptrendIf breach above 17400; to rise somewhere till 17950

The variants of SARS-CoV-2 are named after Greek alphabets, but for naming omicron, the experts skipped two letters Nu and Xi and chose omicron instead. I believe it is unfair. One variant definitely deserved the letter Xi. I wonder if Nifty will skip levels and create a lot of gaps this week.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21-W4: I shorted puts as the market fell, to make good money

Nifty began with a bang on Monday and kept falling most of the day. As I have been making good money via mean reversion style, I decided to go for it and shorted 16900 PE. To my surprise, the market went red on Tuesday morning. I followed instincts and went for all-in.

Did I have a solid plan? No

Is this how I want to trade in future? I shouldn’t but then shouldn’t I take such chances for the inevitable losses when they come?

Luckily, the market went up and the rest of days were the usual.

So I traversed through the following candles:

Here are the results (adjusting capital deployed to what is being shown in Zerodha but I am finally trading with more than 10 lakhs J )

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 16649.82Rs. 1001008.181.67%135.8%2447.94%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions:

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21-W3: The unnecessary ‘other charges’ add to cost

I was deploying the usual trading strategy, and therefore, I had to take the hit. There are times when the usual doesn’t work. This was one of the weeks. Though Nifty was in downtrend, nothing is ever linear in stock market (except the crash of March 2020). I got fooled by the turn again and had to take hit on Monday. I tried to minimize damage by deploying mean reversion style as market was going up, but I was travelling and was not able to micromanage. So I ended up with a loss of around Rs. 2100.

The bigger loss though is attributed to Zerodha / NSE / SEBI or whoever is accountable for creating and playing with margin requirements. I know that margin requirement changes through the day depending on volatility. However, I believe it is completely unfair to change margin requirements after 1530 hours. How am I supposed to adjust positions to meet margin after close of trading hours? It is a loot and it seems no one wants to do anything about it.

So I was navigating through the following trades…

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 7977.87Rs. 9777820.81%52.59%2344.82%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions:

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21-W2: The usual

I deployed my usual sell strangle strategy and the positions kept giving expected profits through the week.

I was trading through following 4 candles

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 7977.87Rs. 9777820.81%52.59%2244.82%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

Usual trading continued during the week as I followed the laws of my excel based strike calculators and results were cool.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

downtrend

Nov21-W4: Nifty to continue downtrend this week? (Nov22 to Nov26)

In my analysis of last week, I left out an important aspect which was cross-under of 5 EMA over 21 EMA. This meant that Nifty is officially in downtrend. Though there was a visible support channel, its significance gets diminished and chances of lack of upward movement get higher. I missed all this in my analysis and well, Nifty showed 4 red candled in the week.    

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

It is the red channel which matters now. More importantly, it is the level of 17,600 which will govern everything in future. Breach of 17,600 would be an official signal of continued downtrend. Nifty may go down by another 1000 points in the long run. Even though Nifty is falling, the weird thing is that volatility has been cooling. I wonder if there would be an upward movement even in short-term

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18050 and 17450
DowntrendIf breach below 17450; to drop somewhere till 17075
UptrendIf breach above 18050; to rise somewhere till 18350

Black Friday sales are around the corner. I wonder if US citizens will loosen their purse strings given the uncertain times.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21 W3 Nifty Chart

Nov21-W3: Nifty to rise till 18300ish this week? (Nov15 to Nov19)

As described last week, level of 18,000 was did play a critical role as Nifty played see saw with that level throughout the week. The end of week saw a good green candle taking Nifty decisively above 18,000 level

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

It is the green channel which matters now. Given the previous swing highs, I of course anticipate Nifty to breach the upper channel. The question will then become if Nifty can maintain its momentum and touch mid / top lines of purple channel. It may just happen. In that case, Nifty can go till 18300 or even 18400. On the other hand, a breach below the green channel can take Nifty back to 17600ish levels

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18300 and 17875
DowntrendIf breach below 17875; to drop somewhere till 17600
UptrendIf breach above 18300; to rise somewhere till 18600

Stubble burning is causing a lot of pollution. Nifty’s charts too appear polluted with all these red candles. Or maybe I should just wash my eyes.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nov21 W1 Performance

Nov21-W1: Made good money by doing intra-day mean reversion trading

The week began with a bang. Nifty went low, really low. With the level hovering around 17,600, I shorted some 17500 PE options. I kept adding some more options as Nifty kept going lower. Eventually, Nifty started turning around and I exited 50% positions at a good profile. But even when Nifty continued to go up, I noticed that option LTP started rising instead of falling. I closed remaining positions after sometime.

That is the thing with options. Their pricing has a lot to do with volatility and market price. It is almost like they have their own world which does have good correlation with spot but spot cannot be referenced for quick trading decisions. The rest of the week was the usual, similar to last week, and overall profit was quite good this week.

So I was trading these candles:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 16730.78Rs. 916051.31.82%156.3%2144.34%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

oct21-w4 result

Oct21-W4: Got fooled by the fake-out

I deployed my usual sell strangle strategy and the positions kept giving expected profits through the week. The only exception was Oct 26, led by the reversal initiation on Oct 25, which caused problem in my call options. I decided to book loss for staying on the safe side but the market then continued with the downtrend.  I guess the middle of A-B-C pattern is tough to navigate. I am not too disappointed with the loss booking. Most of the profit came due to high VIX.

These are the candles of the week:

Here are the results:

Net Profit (after deducting brokerage)Capital deployed (approx)Week’s ROIAnnualized ROI for this weekTotal no. of weeks traded till todayAnnualized  return till today
Rs. 12922.69Rs. 903128.611.43%109.34%2039.18%

The following is breakdown of week’s positions

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nifty Nov21 W2

Nov21-W2: Level of 18000 to influence psychology for Nifty? (Nov8 to Nov12)

Based on volatility behavior, I was thinking last week that market will swing a lot. But it may not be wrong to say that it remained mostly upward. Being a 3 day week, it is difficult to conclude anything anyway

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

The red channel is all that matters as of now. Since the larger timeframe (weekly) is still massively bullish, I would not be surprised if Nifty breaches the top of this channel and takes out 18,000 also. This can then potentially snowball in a large bull move which can bring a new ATH. However, all this requires a good momentum. All that will take some time. As of this week, it is a very stalemate of a situation and the level of 18,000 will define everything.  

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationBetween 18075 and 17750
DowntrendIf breach below 17750; to drop somewhere till 17450
UptrendIf breach above 18075; to rise somewhere till 18300

I hope it has been a happy Diwali for all. However, the auto sector has declared Diwali 2021 as one of the most dismal times due to high costs. Auto sector is usually a leading indicator. Let’s see what happens by Diwali 2022.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.