nifty week ahead

Sep21-W2: Nifty to top out this week (Sep6 to Sep10)?

Price broke loose above 16725 and a 1000 point move happened in 1 week. One needs to just think about that statement for a minute – ‘1000 point move on Nifty in a week’. Wow. Twitter kept throwing projections about Nifty 17000 randomly for almost past 6 months. But did anyone say that it will happen in a week?

Now the following is my analysis for coming week based on what I am looking at (You may want to open image in new tab or save it for better view)

Parallel channels are hard to draw. In an uptrend, drawing the bottom line is a no-brainer but placing the middle and top lines take fair degree of judgment. My last judgment was wrong and I have made adjustment in this drawing. Given the momentum, I expect Nifty to enter the blue channel zone (an extension of black channel). However, price would then be way above moving averages and mean reversion would become priority.

Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with black lines dissecting scenarios)…

ScenarioProbabilityAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationMedBetween 17600 and 17000
DowntrendMedIf breach below 17000; to drop somewhere till 16725
UptrendMedIf breach above 17600; to rise somewhere till 17800

Nifty has outperformed all other global indices on past 1 month and 3 month timeframes and that too by a very large margin. I have absolutely no idea why.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.