Apr21-W5: Nifty to drop below triangle this week (Apr26 to 30)?

Red openings have been opening for 3 Mondays in a row now. The difference last week was that there was a gap down which was filled to a large extent on Tuesday. Overall, Nifty did not ‘move’ much but over the past 3 weeks, it has been steadily going down.

Now, here’s what I am looking at:

Though Nifty has been failing to break the triangle, my bias is on downside since Nifty is below the moving averages and I expect coming week’s price action in the yellow highlighted box

Thus, scenarios for the week ahead…

ScenarioProbabilityAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationHighBetween 14150 and 14550ish
DowntrendHighIf breach below 14150ish; to drop till 13800ish
UptrendLowIf breach above 14550ish; to rise till 14800ish

I wonder how this Monday will begin. Will it break the pattern of past 3 Mondays by opening in green? But if it does so, will the rest of days go in red? It should not feel bad to see Nifty levels travelling towards realistic levels. The party has gone far too long and far too loud.    

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.