Apr21-W2: Nifty on the rise?

I wonder how many people were actively trading the markets last week. With Holi and Good Friday cutting length to 3 days only, trading would have been a light affair. It seems Nifty too was keeping it cool. Green on first day, red on second, and back to first day high on third day. Good for investors but traders might have felt the churn.

With the candles hovering around moving averages, it is tough to say if we are in uptrend or downtrend though my bias is on the upside. Time will tell if RSI breakout is good enough for price to stay above trendline.

Scenarios for the week ahead…

ScenarioProbabilityAnticipated Price Action
ConsolidationHighIf rise till 15050ish; to stay above 14850ish
UptrendMediumIf breach above 15050ish; to rise till 15350ish
DowntrendLowIf breach below 14650ish; to drop till 14350ish

Thus, I am going to begin by selling puts unless I see a red opening on Monday and adjust positions as days unfold. I am expecting that like last week, we may see mix of green and red candles this week.  

DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.